베픽, 파워볼게임 일반볼 통계물리학 적용사례!
안녕하세요. 베픽입니다 ^^
오늘은 파워볼게임 분석!
파워볼분석 왜 대중소인가?!
그냥 확률로써는 로또에 승산이 없습니다. 통계물리학을 이용하여 희귀분석을 통해 적절한 값을 찾는것이 1등 당첨확률을 높이는 유일하고 가장 희망적인 방법일것입니다. 그러나 로또는 17년 기준 약 700회차 밖에 진행되니 않았습니다. 1등 번호 총 가짓수가 8백만개가 넘으므로 아직 0.009%밖에 안되는 표본만 주어졌을 뿐입니다. 이렇게 작은 표본으로는 통계물리학이 아무 효과가 없다는 점에서 다 같을 것입니다. 자! 그럼 설명 시작합니다.
파워볼을 알고 계십니까?!
아..모르겠다~ 하시는 분들을 위해! 간단하게 파워볼게임 설명할께요~

파워볼 게임, 5개를 선택하는 1~28의 일반볼과 하나는 선택하는 0~9 까지의 파워볼. 로또보다 선택의 갯수가 적어 총 가짓수는 일반볼의 경우 98,280가지이지만, 일주일에 한번이 아닌 5분에 한번씩 추첨하기 때문에 표본은 현재 무려 64만개가 넘습니다.
정말 많은 표본값이 존재하죠..?
알파고는 인간을 꺾었고, 그 비결은 모든경우의 수를 생각하는 것이 아닌, 무작위로 추출하는 그중 가장 승산이 높은 방법을 택하는것이었습니다. 바둑의 경우 로또보다도 더 많은 경우의 수가 존재합니다. 때문에 영원히 사람의 영역에만 존재할 줄 알았던 바둑! 그러나 알파고는 인간을 꺾었고, 그 비결은 모든 경우의 수를 생각하는 것이 아닌, 무작위로 추출하여 그 중 가장 승산이 높은 방법을 택하는 것이었습니다. 이를 [몬테르카를로 트리탐색]이라고 합니다.

파워볼도 마찬가지입니다! 이미 수많은 데이터가 축척되었고, 이를 바탕으로 통계에 근거해서 가장 높은 확률로 파워볼을 예측할 수 있게 된것입니다. 알고리즘을 토대로 전체 출현 갯수, 출현 패턴, 최근 출현 빈도 패턴, 일별 패턴, 회차별 출현 패턴 등 최적의 밀도를 부여해서 일반볼을 예측할 수 있습니다. 물론, 확률은 그리 만만한 상대가 아닙니다. 카오스이론에서도 알 수 있듯이 각각의 모든 회차에서 나올 확률은 전부 같지만, 무한히 큰 회차까지는 총 횟수가 같아야하므로 초반에 적게 나왔다면 후반에는 나올 확률이 높은 스스로 모순된 개념을 가졌기때문입니다. 일반볼 5개 중 3개는 어렵지 않게 예측할 수 있었지만, 5개를 모두 맞추는것은 정말 운이 따라야 가능합니다. 각각의 볼은 정말로 어디로 튈지 모르는데 반해, 그 볼들이 모인 합을 추적한다면 충분히 예측이 가능하다고 생각합니다. 다음 회차에 나올 볼 3개를 알고 있다면, 이는 숫자합에 지대한 영향을 끼치기 때문입니다. 즉, 큰 숫자 3개를 예측한다면 숫자합은 절대로 소가 나올 수 없음을 알 수 있습니다. 반대로 작은 숫자 3개를 예측한다면 숫자합은 절대로 ‘대’가 나올 수 없듯이!

예측하기는 매우 어렵지요… 그렇지만! 포기할 순 없습니다. 예측하기는 매우 어렵지요… 동행복권 파워볼에서는 볼의 숫자를 맞추는 것 뿐만 아니고 일반볼 5개의 숫자합에 대해 홀/짝, 대/중/소 게임도 가능하기 때문입니다.
베픽 파워볼 분석기와 함께하세요 ♥
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